SA Collections Market Pressure Report, Q3 2026.

Collections pressure in South Africa is rising again, and it is not landing evenly. The Q3 2026 edition refreshes every indicator from the June report and adds a five-year view of the repo rate and inflation, because that is where this quarter turned.

What stood out

• Rates. Prime is back at 10.75% after two hikes since May. On a R1 million home loan, the instalment is about 31% higher than in October 2021, and real rates have been positive since January 2023, so arrears now compound against the customer.
• Inflation. August inflation of 4.4% would have sat comfortably inside the old 3% to 6% target. Under the new 3% target it is a breach, and the SARB does not expect inflation back at 3% until towards the end of 2027.
• Arrears. 41.8% of credit-active consumers are three months or more behind on at least one loan, and 208,000 more fell into default in Q2 alone, even as household debt to income eased to 61.3%.
• Legal. Fewer new cases are going legal, but the value of civil judgments grew 12.6%, about three times faster than summonses.

The report closes with a pressure map and six moves for the fourth quarter, none of which needs new technology. It uses public data only.

Download the full report (PDF, 14 pages)